Track record
20 calls · 12 positions · 8 avoids · all open
Positions vs S&P 500
+4.3ppAverage
+2.4ppMedian
6/12Beat the index
+2.9ppConviction-weighted
The positions returned +10.7% on average; the S&P 500 returned +6.5% over the same windows.
Long 12
| Ticker | Company | Entry | Entry px | Price now | Return | vs bench | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCY | Incyte | $116.00 | $126.01 | +8.6% | +6.5 pp | Open | Note | |
| MU | Micron Technology | $920.58 | $1,027.77 | +11.6% | +9.6 pp | Open | Note | |
| NFLX | Netflix | $70.08 | $76.03 | +8.5% | +6.4 pp | Open | Note | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | $206.84 | $223.67 | +8.1% | +6.1 pp | Open | Note | |
| PGR | Progressive | $213.60 | $215.50 | +0.9% | −1.2 pp | Open | Note | |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | $122.91 | $169.53 | +37.9% | +35.8 pp | Open | Note | |
| FTNT | Fortinet | $82.22 | $157.22 | +91.2% | +80.5 pp | Open | Note | |
| ACGL | Arch Capital Group | $92.34 | $96.11 | +4.1% | −6.6 pp | Open | Note | |
| ADBE | Adobe | $344.69 | $254.86 | −26.1% | −36.7 pp | Open | Note | |
| UBER | Uber Technologies | $91.20 | $71.08 | −22.1% | −33.1 pp | Open | Note | |
| ZM | Zoom Communications | $89.09 | $96.18 | +8.0% | −2.8 pp | Open | Note | |
| FOX | Fox Corporation Class B | $58.26 | $57.10 | −2.0% | −13.5 pp | Open | Note |
Avoided 8
These are not returns. An avoid is a company looked at and passed on, so no money was put behind it and nothing here is counted in the figures above. What is measured is how the name went on to do against the S&P 500 over the same window: behind the index means passing on it was right.
14.2ppAverage, behind the index
11.4ppMedian, behind the index
4/8Lagged the index, so passing was right
| Ticker | Company | Entry | Price then | Price now | Price move | vs index | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | $215.00 | $173.43 | −19.3% | 31.4 ppbehind | Standing | Note | |
| NDSN | Nordson | $236.37 | $313.94 | +32.8% | 20.8 ppahead | Standing | Note | |
| COKE | Coca-Cola Consolidated | $165.78 | $189.02 | +14.0% | 3.3 ppahead | Standing | Note | |
| EG | Everest Group | $327.16 | $367.87 | +12.4% | 1.8 ppahead | Standing | Note | |
| APP | Applovin | $691.96 | $305.06 | −55.9% | 66.9 ppbehind | Standing | Note | |
| RMBS | Rambus | $101.60 | $87.65 | −13.7% | 24.5 ppbehind | Standing | Note | |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands | $67.43 | $43.33 | −35.7% | 47.2 ppbehind | Standing | Note | |
| NEM | Newmont | $90.73 | $128.71 | +41.9% | 30.4 ppahead | Standing | Note |
Prices as at
How these are measured
- Percentage points (pp)
- The unit for a difference between two percentages, and the standard one for measuring against a benchmark. A position that returned 10.7% while its index returned 6.5% beat it by 4.2 percentage points. Calling that "4.2%" would be a different and wrong claim: 4.2% of 10.7% is not what happened.
- Hit rate
- Calls that beat their benchmark over exactly their own holding period, not calls that merely made money. 6 of 12 scored so far.
- Avg return
- The mean across scored positions. Each one's benchmark is measured over that position's own window, so the return and the figure it is compared against always cover the same days.
- Avg vs benchmark
- Equal-weighted, and there are no position sizes anywhere on this site: every call counts once, whatever was actually put behind it. Over a dozen positions a mean is largely a statement about its two biggest, so read it alongside the table rather than instead of it.
- Conviction-weighted
- The same figure with high conviction counted three times, medium twice and low once. Second to the equal-weighted number, not instead of it.
- Holding period
- Entry date to today for an open call, entry to exit for a closed one. The entry date is in the table: a six-week call and a nine-month one do not belong to the same reading of an average, and nothing here will stop you averaging them.
- Avoids
- An avoid is a call not to own something. It carries no position, so it is not in the hit rate or in any position figure: counting passes alongside positions would flatter the record. It is still scored on its own terms, as the index return minus the price move over the same window, which is what passing on it was worth against holding the index instead. Positive means passing was right. 8 so far.
- What is left out
- Dividends. Every figure here is a price return, so the income on a position is not counted and the dividend payers are understated.