How I work

I publish equity research notes and keep a public record of every call in them. Losing calls stay on the page, in the same type as the winners, permanently. A track record that only shows the good ones is not a track record.

What I publish

A research note is the long-form work: the business, the numbers, the argument. A position note is the call that comes out of it, with an entry date and an entry price. Both open with the same four things — the view, the thesis, the assumption the whole thing rests on, and what would prove me wrong. If I cannot state the disproof, I do not have a thesis, I have an opinion.

How the numbers are calculated

Returns are simple price returns from entry to exit, or from entry to the last manual price update for anything still open. No dividends, no leverage, no position sizing, no transaction costs — these are calls, not a portfolio, and pretending otherwise would flatter them.

Every position is measured against the S&P 500 if it is US-listed and the STOXX Europe 600 if it is European. The index level on the entry date is stored in the position file alongside the entry price, so the relative return is computed over exactly the holding period of the call and never over a flattering window. Relative performance is stated in percentage points: position return minus benchmark return.

A short is scored on the inverse of the price move, and its benchmark return is inverted with it. An avoid is a call not to own something; it carries no position, so the price move is recorded but no return is booked and it never enters the averages. A hit is a call that beat its benchmark, not merely one that made money.

Conviction is my own label at the time of writing — low, medium or high. It is recorded so that the equal-weighted numbers can be checked against a conviction-weighted version (high 3, medium 2, low 1). The equal-weighted figure is the headline, because it is the one a reader can verify by hand from the table.

Prices

There is no market-data feed behind this site. Prices for open positions are typed in by hand and the date they were last touched is stamped above the table. If that date is more than10 days old the stamp says so, in the accent colour, to me as much as to you. Closed positions are marked at their exit price and never move again.

What is never edited

Once a note is published, its text is fixed. The build fingerprints the body and the terms of the call and refuses to compile if either changes, so a thesis cannot be quietly revised after the fact. When my view changes, I add a dated update underneath the original. When a position closes, I write a post-mortem saying what happened, what I got right, what I got wrong, and whether the thesis actually played out or I was right for the wrong reason. The build will not let a position close without one.

Standing disclaimer

Personal research. Not investment advice. Assume I may hold any security discussed here — every position I have taken is on the scoreboard, which is the point of it. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to anyone, and none of it takes account of anybody's circumstances but my own.